International climate experts warn that the Earth is becoming increasingly unstable

The report “State of the Climate 2026: Challenges and Opportunities”, published in BioScience, includes contributions from Unai Pascual, an Ikerbasque Professor at the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Seven of the 16 indicators monitored in the report have reached record extreme levels, while several others continue to evolve in an unfavourable direction

A new international study published in BioScience states that the Earth’s climate system is becoming rapidly destabilised and that, although signs of significant societal change are emerging, broader and faster action is still required.

The report, “State of the Climate 2026: Challenges and Opportunities”, which monitors 16 climate indicators, highlights that seven have reached record extreme levels, while several others are also moving in an unfavourable direction. This raises concerns about the interaction of feedback mechanisms and the growing risk of crossing critical tipping points.

“Rapid destabilisation is now a diagnosis rather than a warning about the future,” said William Ripple, one of the report’s lead authors and Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Oregon State University. “Human activity, primarily the consumption of fossil fuels, is overloading the planet’s life-support systems,” added Unai Pascual, Ikerbasque Research Professor at the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) and co-author of the report.

According to the authors, the analysis urges world leaders and policymakers to “move away from the business-as-usual approach that has persisted despite decades of evidence showing that human activities are driving dangerous climate change”.

Record highs

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have now reached 428 parts per million, higher than at any point during the past two million years and approximately 50% above pre-industrial levels recorded before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the late eighteenth century. The summer of 2026 recorded the highest temperatures ever documented in many regions of the world, while global ocean temperatures also reached a record high in July.

“Extreme weather events are intensifying across many parts of the world, demonstrating how climate change is increasingly affecting people’s daily lives,” said Unai Pascual. “We are facing increasingly destructive heatwaves, floods, droughts, storms and wildfires, causing growing losses of human life, infrastructure, food security, biodiversity and economic stability. However, these events are not merely natural disasters; they arise from the interaction between climate hazards and human social systems, and are shaped by differences in social conditions that determine who faces the greatest risks and vulnerabilities.”

The authors emphasise that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential and also advocate rapidly deployable adaptation measures, including urban cooling solutions, wetland and mangrove restoration, wildfire preparedness, water conservation, distributed solar energy and more resilient food systems.

They further note that climate injustice is a global structural problem, with communities least responsible for historical emissions, particularly those in the Global South and in small island nations, already suffering disproportionately severe consequences from climate disruption.

“Many climate solutions are already technically viable and increasingly cost-competitive; however, because climate change is driven by interconnected energy, economic, ecological and social systems, truly significant progress is likely to depend on integrated responses spanning multiple sectors and scales,” said Ripple. “With low-carbon sources already providing nearly 43% of global electricity generation, we may be witnessing the emergence of what we call the ‘Age of Electricity’,” said lead co-author Christopher Wolf, former postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University. “This is a reason for hope, but fossil fuel use and emissions continue to reach record levels, making a much faster transition essential.”

Pascual also warns that “achieving the necessary emissions reductions depends on systemic transformations in energy generation, consumption patterns, food systems and economic priorities, including a rethinking of prevailing paradigms of progress and development. All of this must be aligned with the protection of nature.”

Key findings of the report

● The rate of global warming appears to be accelerating, almost doubling from around 0.19°C per decade between 1970 and 2010 to approximately 0.36°C per decade since then.

● A very strong El Niño event is expected to develop this autumn, potentially contributing significantly to global warming in the coming months and placing 2026 on track to become one of the warmest years ever recorded.

● Glacier thickness and Greenland’s ice mass are at their lowest levels on record. In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced intense melting episodes, contributing to a sixfold increase in summer meltwater volumes.

● Global tree-cover loss due to fires reached 10.8 million hectares in 2025, an area roughly equivalent to the US state of Tennessee, representing the third-highest figure on record. Rising wildfire activity is both a consequence of climate change and an increasing source of greenhouse gas emissions.

● Fossil fuel consumption increased by 0.9% in 2025, with oil (+1.0%), coal (+0.4%) and gas (+1.3%) all reaching record highs. Annual energy-related carbon dioxide emissions exceeded 41 gigatonnes for the first time.

● On a more positive note, the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has declined for four consecutive years, while solar and wind energy consumption has increased by around 18%.